The Other Races to Watch Tonight

While the rest of the blogosphere has its attention fixed on the Pennsylvania presidential primary, there are a few other races worth keeping an eye on tonight:

• MS-01: The main event.  Voters in north Mississippi go to the polls for the third time today in order to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker.  Despite the district’s R+10 lean, Democrat Travis Childers, a Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, is running a hard-charging race against the GOP nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

  Davis waged a scorched earth campaign against his primary opponent, former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough, and he has extended the same negativity against Childers in the special election.  Might it backfire?  From a New York Times profile on the race:

  Even Republicans acknowledge that the race appears to be close. The party has turned to advertisements questioning, among other things, care at a nursing home owned by Mr. Childers, a campaign style that has disconcerted some Republicans more used to the genteel politicking of candidates who have long known one another in a largely rural, close-knit district.

  “It could go either way,” said Alan Nunnelee, a Republican state senator in Tupelo. “People are frustrated with the aggressive campaign tactics that have been used, particularly on the Republican side. The Republican camp has been much more aggressive than people in northeast Mississippi are used to.” Mr. Nunnelee said he was nonetheless sticking with his party.

  Not so one of the state’s Republican eminences, Jack Reed Sr., who once ran a credible race for governor and led the Mississippi Economic Council. A businessman in Tupelo, he is supporting Mr. Childers, citing “the personal appeal of the candidate” and “dissatisfaction with the Bush administration.”

  As a sign of just how seriously national Republicans are taking this race, the NRCC has spent $292,000 on media and mail against Childers, while the DCCC has spent $141,000 against Davis.  I get the sense that Democrats are operating in a wait-and-see mode here, and if Childers performs well enough to force this race into a runoff on May 13th, we just might see the DCCC amplify their efforts here.  Recent comments from DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen seem to back this up:

  “We have been very creative in using the funds that we’re allowed to coordinate with the other side … which has greatly boosted the TV buy that Childers did,” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Monday. “This is a two-step process. If nobody gets over 50 percent of the vote tomorrow, you go to the next round.”

  With voter fatigue and voter confusion likely high in this district, expect this one to be a very low-turnout affair.  As to who that benefits, that’s anyone’s guess at this point.

  SSP will be liveblogging the results as they come in tonight.  Check back with us later for the score.

• PA-03:  GOP incumbent Phil English once looked like a ripe target for defeat this cycle.  His 2006 performance (54%) against a no-profile Democratic challenger and his district’s R+1.6 PVI seemed alluring for a strong challenger.  Alas, the current crop of Democratic candidates here have yet to impress.

  Erie City Councilor Kyle Foust, once highly touted by the DCCC, has turned out to be a fundraising dud — only raising $61K in the first quarter of 2008 and sitting on $43K cash-on-hand.  His primary opponents, faith-based activist Mike Waltner, labor lawyer Tom Myers, and Lake Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper have fared a bit better in the money race, but not overwhelmingly so.  There’s still a chance that this one could turn into a real race, but the primary winner will have to step up his or her efforts big time.

• PA-05:  A longshot’s longshot, this R+9.7 open seat has drawn three Democratic contenders: Iraq War vet and former Senate aide Bill Cahir, Clearfield County Commissioner Mark McCracken, and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello.  Vilello picked up the endorsement of Gov. Ed Rendell, while Cahir (who has the backing of Rep. Patrick Murphy), has been the clear leader in the money race so far, bringing in $121K during the first quarter of 2008.

  The GOP primary has been a huge mess, with nine candidates on the ballot and no clear front-runner.  Matt Shaner (the Club For Growth’s pick), Derek Walker, Jeff Stroehmann and Glenn Thompson seem to be the front-runners, but Walker recently suffered some bad news when he was busted on burglary and criminal trespass charges.  Oops.

• PA-10: Frosh Dem incumbent Chris Carney must be enjoying the GOP fratricide here between businessmen Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser.  Hackett has enjoyed the full-throated support of the nutters at the Club For Growth, but his campaign has also come under fire recently due to allegations that he held pro-choice views last year.  This one has been expensive and bloody.
• PA-18:  Similar to PA-03, this one looked like a compelling target earlier in the cycle, but none of the Democratic candidates have caught on fire yet.  Businessman Steve O’Donnell has self-funded to the tune of $260,000, and he faces off with consultant Beth Hafer and businessman Brien Well for the Democratic nod.  Hafer, the daughter of Barbara Hafer, the state’s former treasurer and auditor general, will have a name recognition advantage here.